Forecast Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for Greater Horn of Africa from June to September
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre predicts that the Greater Horn of Africa will face above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, affecting various countries. This period is critical for agriculture and water resource management, with potential risks of flooding in certain areas. Forecasts are based on historical data and modeled predictions, providing essential information for decision-making across key sectors.
The Greater Horn of Africa is forecasted to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September, encompassing areas such as Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, as well as large portions of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This prediction comes from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which functions as a regional climate center under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The months of June to September represent a crucial rainy season for the northern and western sections of the Greater Horn of Africa, typically contributing over 90% of the annual precipitation in the northern regions and about 40% in the southern parts. The anticipated wetter conditions during this period are reminiscent of climatic patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, prompting concerns about potential flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, as highlighted by Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC. Regions that have recently endured severe flooding—such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and various areas of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda—will transition into the dry season from June to September. The availability of seasonal climate outlooks is crucial for informed decision-making within sectors such as agriculture, health, and water resource management, aligning with the objectives of the WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative. The forecast was formally presented at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, attended by climate scientists, governmental and non-governmental organizations, as well as representatives from climate-sensitive sectors. For over two decades, the WMO has facilitated these regional climate outlook forums, providing vital climate forecasts and data aimed at safeguarding lives and livelihoods, while also supporting essential sectors such as agriculture, food security, water resource management, health, and disaster risk reduction. In adherence to the WMO’s guidelines, ICPAC employs an objective forecasting methodology, which incorporates initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres and applies three varying calibration techniques to enhance forecast accuracy. A generally early to normal onset of rainfall is anticipated in various parts of the region, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. Nonetheless, a delay in onset is likely for Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, as well as southern South Sudan. Furthermore, temperature forecasts suggest a high likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions extending across the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa is a region that experiences significant seasonal rainfall, especially during the months of June to September. This rainy season is essential not only for replenishing water resources but also for supporting key sectors such as agriculture and food security. The region has a varied climate, which is influenced by several factors, including global weather patterns. In recent years, climate forums have been established to monitor and predict weather patterns accurately, thereby facilitating adequate preparation in response to climate-related risks. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) plays a pivotal role in this endeavor, providing forecasts and guidance based on rigorous scientific methods.
In summary, forecasts of above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa between June and September 2024 signify critical rainfall patterns that promise to affect agricultural productivity and water availability. Given the historical context and potential for flooding, particularly in susceptible areas, proactive measures are essential for all stakeholders involved. Timely and informed decision-making is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate variability in this environmentally sensitive region.
Original Source: wmo.int
