Monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael: Development Chances and Historical Context
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-pressure area expected to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael within 48 hours, with high chances of becoming a tropical depression soon. Historically, hurricanes in November are rare, yet they do occur. Heavy rains are expected in parts of the western Caribbean, with potential impacts on U.S. territories, depending on the storm’s trajectory.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a low-pressure area over the Caribbean, which is predicted to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael. Current forecasts indicate an 80 percent likelihood of this low-pressure system evolving into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of development over the upcoming week. Should it transition into a tropical depression—characterized by winds under 39 miles per hour—there is potential for it to be upgraded to a tropical storm if it becomes “more organized” and attains wind speeds between 39 and 73 miles per hour, in accordance with NASA’s classification criteria. Historically, hurricanes making landfall in the mainland USA during November are rare, with only four recorded instances; the most recent was Hurricane Nicole in 2022, which impacted Florida. Alex DesRosiers, a researcher with the Colorado State University tropical weather and climate team, stated, “Hurricanes in November do happen, but they are far less common than in peak season months.” He added that there have been approximately seven times more hurricanes reported in September than in November over a historical record spanning 150 years. The NHC may issue tropical storm watches or warnings as the system progresses northward and northwestward over the central and western Caribbean. Regardless of the ultimate intensity of the system, heavy rainfall is anticipated in adjacent western Caribbean regions, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is slated to conduct an investigation of the developing storm later today. Meteorologists from AccuWeather expect the weather system to potentially affect the United States, contingent on its trajectory. Chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno remarked that the path of the jet stream could influence the storm’s movement across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico towards South Florida or to the west towards Louisiana or Texas. He cautioned that there is also a chance the system may continue westward and dissipate over southern Mexico. It is essential to note that while an intensification into hurricane status would be surprising, it remains a possibility within this active hurricane season, which officially concludes on November 30.
As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, the National Hurricane Center frequently assesses the activity in the Caribbean, particularly during November when conditions for hurricane formation are usually less favorable. Despite the end of the hurricane season approaching, the monitoring of low-pressure systems emerging in the Caribbean is vital due to their potential to develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. Historical data shows that while hurricanes in November are uncommon, they can occur, thus necessitating vigilant observation and timely forecasting to ensure public safety in affected regions.
In summary, the potential development of Tropical Storm Rafael is being watched by the National Hurricane Center, with significant chances of formation in the coming days. Historical context suggests that November hurricanes are rare, yet not impossible. As weather patterns evolve, ongoing monitoring and preparation are essential to mitigate the impact on the communities that may be affected by heavy rains and possible storm development.
Original Source: www.newsweek.com
