NOAA Predicts Above Average Activity for Atlantic Hurricane Season…

NOAA forecasts an active Atlantic hurricane season for 2023, predicting 13-19 named storms, six to ten hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. Factors include warmer oceans and robust West African Monsoon activity. Despite staffing shortages in some offices, NOAA claims readiness for the season, calling for public preparedness as the June 1 start date nears.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a notably active Atlantic hurricane season this year, with predictions suggesting more storm activity than usual. According to meteorologist Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, the agency expects between 13 to 19 named storms to form.

Storms earn their names once wind speeds reach at least 39 mph, and out of these predicted storms, NOAA anticipates that six to ten will develop into hurricanes with wind speeds surpassing 74 mph. Alarmingly, they are also predicting that three to five of these will be major hurricanes, categorized as Category 3 or above.

However, the forecasts do not clarify which storms could impact landfalls or the likelihood of any hitting U.S. coasts. Forecasters are stressing the importance of preparedness now, with Graham highlighting the necessity of assembling emergency supplies. “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together,” he emphasized.

Part of the reasoning behind the above-average forecast stems from rising ocean temperatures, a trend that aligns with climate change impacts. Graham stated that, “The warmer ocean temperatures is really consistent with us being in a more active season,” pointing to evidence from recent patterns making the season potentially more intense.

Additionally, increased storm activity may be attributed to a more vigorous West African Monsoon, which typically breeds storms off Africa’s coast that then move into the Atlantic Ocean and toward the United States.

Complicating matters this season, many National Weather Service offices are experiencing staffing shortages, a blow from previous administrative decisions that led to firings and voluntary retirements. Nearly 600 staff have left the National Weather Service since the start of this administrative term, leaving many local offices unstaffed.

Despite this, NOAA maintains that the National Hurricane Center, a component of the National Weather Service that specifically oversees hurricane forecasting, claims it has necessary resources to manage the upcoming season well. Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA, asserted the center is “fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.”

Nonetheless, local weather offices, responsible for assessing the regional implications of storms such as rainfall and flooding, face greater scrutiny this season due to personnel gaps. Graham reassured the public saying, “I’m going to make sure that our offices, when there’s a hurricane threat, that’s going to have the resources that they need to make sure every warning goes out.”

The official hurricane season operates from June 1 until November 30, generally peaking in intensity during late summer and early autumn. NOAA’s predictions appear to align with external forecasts by academic institutions and private sector organizations, signifying a consensus across the board.

Last year’s hurricane season resulted in 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, marking one of the most active seasons on record, with five storms making landfall on the U.S. coast. Notably, Hurricane Helene caused significant destruction and over 150 fatalities across several states last year.

The rapid intensification of hurricanes, particularly when they approach shore, has been increasingly common due to global warming. A recent study indicated that between 2001 and 2020, Atlantic tropical cyclones were 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification compared to prior decades. High sea temperatures in recent years are directly linked to this phenomenon, indicating a concerning trend as we enter another hurricane season.

The NOAA’s predictions for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season suggest an active period ahead, with a potential for significant storm activity driven by warmer ocean temperatures and the West African Monsoon. Although staffing shortages within the National Weather Service present challenges, both NOAA and its hurricane center are reportedly prepared for the upcoming season. Communities are urged to begin preparations as the June 1 start date approaches, underscoring the need for vigilance in the face of increasing climate-related risks.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com