Unusual Cooling of North Atlantic May Impact Future Tropical Cyclones

This year, scientists noted a significant cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean, which could affect tropical cyclone activity for 2025. Ocean temperatures, as of late April, dropped two degrees Fahrenheit compared to last year. The steadiness of the Bermuda High is a likely factor in this change. Overall, the global ocean continues to warm, raising concerns about future weather patterns and storm intensities.

Scientists have observed a notable shift in ocean temperatures in the tropics this year, unlike anything seen in several prior years. This change could bear implications for tropical cyclone activity heading into 2025, as it presents a variable for meteorologists to consider. Specifically, the North Atlantic Ocean has cooled by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit compared to last year, according to Fox Weather.

Measurements taken in late April reveal that ocean temperatures are similar to those noted six years ago. While the North Atlantic’s current temperatures are cooler than last year, it remains above the averages recorded from 1982 to 2010 and 1991 to 2020. Yet, the deviation from recent record-breaking heat makes this cooling a noteworthy occurrence.

Meteorologist Andrew Wulfeck highlights, “One significant factor is the persistent Bermuda High, which has been fairly steadfast and centered northeast of the island nation of Bermuda.” He explains that this ridge strengthened easterly trade winds across the Atlantic, contributing to ocean upwelling, which ultimately has led to the drop in sea surface temperatures.

The cooling North Atlantic is important because it plays a role in cyclone development. If the Bermuda High weakens, it is possible that ocean temperatures will recover. Notably, early May’s computer models suggested that such a rebound may not happen, potentially indicating that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could begin with below-average sea surface temperatures—a phenomenon that is rare in the North Atlantic.

Typically, tropical disturbances in spring crop up off the coast of West Africa. However, this year’s cooling trend might hinder or postpone the development of early-season tropical systems. Meanwhile, other regions outside the North Atlantic still maintain sufficiently warm conditions for tropical cyclone formation.

The current cooling in the North Atlantic contrasts sharply with the broader trend of rising global ocean temperatures. Ocean temperatures worldwide hit 1.6 degrees above average in April, marking the second-highest figure on record. In 2024, warmer oceans significantly influenced the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in 11 storms. A Climate Central analysis stated, “human-caused global warming elevated ocean temperatures and boosted all eleven storms’ intensities, increasing their highest sustained wind speeds by 9 to 28 mph.”

Understanding the critical climate issues interlinked with ocean temperature and its influence on tropical cyclones is essential. Raising awareness by discussing these pressing matters with friends and family could spur local initiatives tackling the challenges posed by our warming planet.

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In conclusion, this year’s unusual cooling of the North Atlantic has taken many scientists by surprise, potentially impacting tropical cyclone activity in the near future. The steadfast presence of the Bermuda High seems to be a significant contributor to this trend. It raises concerns about the implications for early-season storm development and reflects the ongoing challenge of grappling with global temperature rises. Awareness and education about these developments remain crucial for proactive efforts against climate change.

Original Source: www.thecooldown.com