Anticipated Cyclone Activity in Australia Signals Potential Record Season
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology anticipates the formation of a tropical low off WA’s coast, potentially leading to the season’s busiest cyclone activity in 19 years, with heavy rainfall also expected across northern Australia. Flooding conditions are developing, particularly in Queensland and the NT, as weather systems evolve.
A potential tropical low is anticipated to develop by Friday approximately 500 kilometers off the north coast of Western Australia (WA). The Bureau of Meteorology indicates a possibility of this system intensifying into a cyclone, contributing to what may be the busiest cyclone season in 19 years. Since December, there have been nine confirmed cyclones, marking the highest count in three years.
If the developing system achieves cyclone status, it will be designated as either Courtney or Dianne. Concurrently, northern Australia will experience significant rainfall due to a surge of humid air from the north, expected to result in widespread precipitation over the upcoming fortnight, particularly affecting Queensland, which received 301 millimeters of rain in a 24-hour period this week.
Heavy rains are expected to extend to the Northern Territory (NT) and WA’s Kimberley, as a monsoon trough potentially re-emerges. This pattern is often conducive for the formation of tropical lows and cyclones. The current surge in tropical activity is predicted to persist for weeks, resulting in above-average rainfall and potentially one of the most active cyclone seasons of this century.
The monsoon trough, characterized by converging moist winds, significantly contributes to the genesis of tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Currently, a developing tropical low exists south of the Cocos Islands, although it poses no threat to mainland Australia. Another system, closer to WA, is projected to form offshore and migrate towards the coast, with water temperatures ideal for cyclone development exceeding 31 degrees Celsius.
The Bureau of Meteorology reports that the ongoing cyclone activity is notable, with a likelihood of two more systems forming shortly. Out of the nine cyclones confirmed this season, five occurred in February, the highest monthly total since January 2011. However, the forecast indicates only a 10 percent likelihood of the system intensifying over the weekend, with predictions showing a potential increase to approximately 30 percent early next week.
Modelling suggests the cyclone may track parallel to the Pilbara coast, although the unpredictable nature of cyclone forecasting warns against dismissing the possibility of landfall. Meanwhile, northern and central Australia are experiencing increased rainfall due to moist air mass movement from equatorial waters, resulting in significant accumulations in regions such as the North Tropical Coast.
Recent precipitation has caused flooding in multiple rivers, including the Bohle River. Rain is projected to extend into more central parts of Queensland, contributing to a continuing shift in weather patterns from extreme heat to rainy conditions. By the weekend, widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the NT and parts of northern South Australia, with persistent heavy rainfall predicted into next week across much of northern Australia.
Long-term forecasts suggest the rainy conditions may continue into early April, with up to an 80 percent probability of above-median rainfall in some regions. This forecast persists through April, indicating enhanced cyclone activity remains probable for the remainder of the wet season. Additional storms this autumn could bring the season’s total to 12, establishing it as the busiest in 19 years.
In summary, the Australian tropical cyclone season is poised to be exceptionally active, with forecasts indicating potential formation of tropical lows and a heightened likelihood of cyclones. The expected increase in rainfall across northern Australia from humid air influx is set to elevate the risk of flooding, maintaining significantly above-average precipitation levels this season. The close monitoring of the developing weather systems is essential, as their trajectories and impacts remain uncertain but crucial for regional preparedness.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
