A Comprehensive Analysis of Syria’s Civil Conflict: 14 Years Later

The Syrian civil war has persisted for 14 years since its inception in 2009, transitioning with the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. Ahmad al-Sharaa, the new interim president, faces challenges from both Assad loyalists and various armed factions while navigating foreign influence and sectarian violence. The continued threat of ISIS complicates the fragile landscape, calling for rigorous international involvement to foster peace and stability in Syria.

Fourteen years have transpired since the onset of nationwide protests in Syria, which ultimately spiraled into a complex civil war that endures to this day. This past Saturday signified a notable milestone as it marked the first anniversary of the conflict post the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. His departure was a result of a rapid insurgent offensive just three months prior, representing a significant transformation in this enduring conflict, recognized as one of the deadliest of the 21st century.

In the aftermath of Assad’s exit, Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has assumed the role of Syrian Interim President. Sharaa was once a key figure within the Islamic State militant group and later switched allegiance to Al-Qaeda before severing ties with all jihadist affiliations in 2016. He has now called for peace and unity throughout Syria, despite ongoing violence and foreign interventions as various powers vie for influence in the country.

The abrupt nature of Assad’s removal illustrated the frailties of his administration, particularly with allies like Iran and Russia preoccupied with other conflicts, namely Israel and Ukraine. As the rebel forces rapidly gained ground, the atmosphere shifted dramatically in favor of Sharaa, even in Assad’s Alawite strongholds. However, recent deadly ambushes by Assad loyalists against interim government security forces indicate a significant challenge for Sharaa, with reports suggesting nearly 1,400 civilian casualties related to sectarian violence.

The backlash against the interim government points to a crucial moment for Sharaa’s leadership and his supposed commitment to pluralism, particularly against the rising tide of resistance groups that threaten his authority. Iran’s diminishing influence in Syria post-Assad’s regime has given rise to several new factions aligned with Iranian interests, which have also targeted the interim government. In parallel, Russia remains engaged in discussions with Sharaa while calling for international efforts to address the violent upheaval within Syria.

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s expressed reluctance to engage militarily in Syria, the U.S. remains active in the region. Sharaa recently praised a deal brokered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and U.S. officials have confirmed that their military mission remains steady despite the developments. The Kurdish community constitutes about 10% of Syria’s population, sharing territorial concerns with Turkey, which harbors distrust towards the SDF, associating it with Kurdish separatist movements.

In a contrasting agenda, Israel has turned its attention toward the Druze community in Syria, triggering tensions with the interim government as the IDF intensifies military operations within Syrian territories. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s justification for Israel’s military presence in southern Syria raises pressuring questions for Sharaa, as protests from Syrian Druze communities against Israeli actions persist. The operational dynamics suggest that the interim government faces significant challenges in unifying Syria while contending with deeper geopolitical patterns.

Although ISIS has been progressively diminished, remnants of the group continue to carry out insurgent operations. Sharaa, having once been a leader within the jihadist framework, now grapples with the specter of ISIS’s residual threats, compounded by increased hostilities since the regime change. The U.S. has escalated operations against ISIS and Al-Qaeda recently, as concerns over the resurgence of violence within the region linger amidst broader geopolitical distractions.

In summary, the ongoing conflict in Syria remains deeply entrenched and complex, marked by shifting power dynamics following the removal of President Bashar al-Assad. Ahmad al-Sharaa’s interim government faces formidable challenges, including violence from Assad loyalists, international scrutiny, and the fragmented allegiances of ethnic groups such as the Kurds and Druze. As foreign powers continue to influence the situation, the potential for more sectarian unrest, alongside the threat posed by residual ISIS elements, calls for attentive international engagement and collaborative efforts toward achieving lasting peace.

Original Source: www.newsweek.com