2024 Early Voting Insights: Partisan Trends 16 Days Before Election
Sixteen days prior to the November election, early in-person votes indicate that likely Republicans and Democrats are equally participating, a notable rise for Republicans compared to previous years. However, Democrats still maintain a significant lead in mail-in ballots, remaining consistent with past elections.
As of 16 days before the November election, the early in-person voting figures indicate that likely Republican voters have achieved a level of participation that is comparable to that of likely Democratic voters. This marks a significant increase for Republicans relative to the same timeframe in previous election cycles from 2021 through 2023. However, it is noteworthy that likely Democratic voters maintain a substantial lead in mail-in voting, with a ratio exceeding two-to-one, which remains consistent with trends observed in preceding years. In order to analyze early voting trends, it is essential to recognize that, according to the Virginia Daily Absentee List, the state does not mandate voter registration based on party affiliation, and the counting of ballots does not take place until the election day. To estimate the partisan alignment of voters, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) has matched voter identities in the Daily Absentee List with data derived from L2 Political, a firm specializing in political data analytics. This analysis utilizes an algorithm that predicts voter party inclination based on historical primary election participation and demographic data. It is also pertinent to highlight that estimates for the 2020 election were excluded from this analysis due to previously mentioned data restrictions, which resulted in a significant proportion of unknown affiliations. For further insights, including a comprehensive breakdown of early voting by locality, individuals may refer to the VPAP’s Early Voting Dashboard.
The article provides a snapshot of early voting patterns in Virginia as the November election approaches, specifically focusing on the partisan breakdown of early voters. It emphasizes the rising participation of Republicans in early in-person voting compared to historical data, while highlighting the enduring dominance of Democrats in mail-in voting. The data are collected in a manner that respects the state’s electoral regulations, aiming to offer insights into voter behavior shortly before the election.
In summary, the early voting landscape in Virginia shows an encouraging trend for Republicans as they reach parity with Democrats in early in-person voting. Conversely, Democrats continue to show a decisive lead in mail-in ballots. This data not only reflects current voter engagement but also underscores the significance of understanding electoral behavior as the election draws near.
Original Source: www.vpap.org
