Syria’s Recent Violence: Assessing the Risk of Civil War

Syria experiences a surge in violence chiefly instigated by loyalists of the ousted Assad regime, yet this does not currently indicate the emergence of a new civil war. The resilient unpopularity of these loyalists, along with Ahmed al-Sharaa’s cautious leadership, suggests pathways toward stability. Despite external influences and regional power struggles, immediate escalations may be avertable if economic recovery and minority rights are prioritized.

Recent escalations in violence in Syria have sparked fears of a resurgence of sectarian conflict, particularly after attacks attributed to loyalists of the ousted Assad regime. Despite this, the likelihood of a full-scale civil war remains low. The recent violence has resulted in significant casualties, including many civilians, primarily in western Syria, where loyalist factions continue to retain considerable arms and support, especially from the Alawite community.

The violence appears to be a reaction from Assad loyalists against the new leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa and his group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has ties to al-Qaeda. Additionally, Iranian influence, lost with Assad’s departure, may have exacerbated the unrest. Al-Sharaa’s forces responded with substantial military action to quell the uprising, resulting in numerous civilian deaths due to the intensity of the military engagement.

Notably, the strong unpopularity of Assad loyalists may prevent an all-out civil war. Many Syrians harbor deep animosity towards the Assad regime due to its history of human rights abuses. However, al-Sharaa must navigate the situation carefully; failure to address economic recovery and potential imposition of stringent legal measures could incite further unrest. Al-Sharaa has recognized these challenges, advocating for financial support and upholding minority rights to foster stability.

The potential for external involvement in the violence remains a concern. While unverified reports suggest Iranian interference, it is clear that neighboring Arab states prefer to avoid a new proxy war. They are concentrating on internal issues rather than escalating involvement in Syria’s complexities. Nonetheless, regional power dynamics could shift rapidly should the situation worsen.

Regarding the involvement of the United States and other global powers, the current U.S. administration shows limited interest in engagement within Syria, focusing on domestic matters instead. However, there has been recent cooperation between the Syrian regime and the U.S.-aligned Kurdish forces, indicating a possibility for greater integration and stabilization efforts. Turkey’s involvement is also significant, as it seeks a favorable regime that can curb Kurdish nationalism and enhance its regional influence.

This analysis reflects the views of the Council on Foreign Relations, which advocates understanding the nuanced dynamics in international conflicts without taking institutional stances.

In summary, while the recent violence in Syria raises alarms about a potential return to civil strife, various factors currently suggest that a new civil war is unlikely. The unpopularity of Assad loyalists and the new regime’s awareness of the need for economic reform and respect for minority rights may play critical roles in maintaining stability. The situation remains fluid, with external interests and regional dynamics influencing Syria’s future trajectory.

Original Source: www.cfr.org