Turkey’s Geopolitical Prospects: A Favorable Yet Complex Landscape

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be benefiting from several favorable developments, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, potential resolutions of the Kurdish conflict, and improved economic conditions. However, challenges remain, particularly concerning regional stability and international relations, indicating a complex scenario ahead for Turkey.

In the current geopolitical climate, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be experiencing a favorable turn of events. Having been in power for over 20 years, he is reportedly seeking to extend his tenure, which ends in 2028. Emre Peker, an expert from the Eurasia Group, notes that Erdogan now possesses a better opportunity to fulfill his foreign policy and economic ambitions than he has experienced in the past decade.

Firstly, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria may allow for the return of Syrian refugees and enhance Turkey’s economic and strategic influence in the country. Over 80,000 refugees have already returned, and a military partnership with the new government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa is already underway, bolstered by Turkish assistance during their ascendance.

Secondly, there are potential resolutions regarding the Kurdish issue. The PKK, the primary Kurdish militant group, has indicated a readiness to relinquish arms, which, if successful, could resolve a conflict lasting 40 years and resulting in considerable loss of life. Such a resolution would require delicate balancing from Erdogan amid his alliances with nationalist groups.

Thirdly, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could create reconstruction opportunities beneficial to Turkish construction firms. Erdogan has fostered ties with both Russia and Ukraine and is positioning Turkey as a mediator in the conflict, which might serve to bolster its economy further even as relations between the U.S. and Ukraine grow tenuous.

Additionally, Turkey’s economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation dropping to 39%, the lowest in nearly two years, and GDP growth exceeding expectations at 3.2%. The central bank’s cautious interest rate reductions aim to sustain this economic momentum. However, Peker warns that there are significant caveats to this optimism.

Syria’s future remains uncertain, as the country’s sectarian tensions could erupt again, jeopardizing Erdogan’s aspirations of economic benefits from Syrian stability. Violence has already resurfaced between government forces and minority groups, raising flags regarding the social cohesion of the new Syrian government.

With respect to the Kurdish resolution, Erdogan faces the challenge of securing support from Kurdish parties while not alienating the nationalist sentiments of his coalition partners, which complicates any constitutional amendments necessary for extending his tenure beyond 2028.

Furthermore, the anticipated shift in U.S. defense policy concerning Europe may not necessarily yield benefits for Turkey. While Erdogan’s administration could profit from increased European defense spending, there is a risk that Europe may prefer to invest those resources domestically rather than outsourcing them to Turkey.

Finally, the U.S. security umbrella covering Turkey, particularly through the Incirlik airbase—which houses American nuclear weapons—represents a significant advantage for Erdogan. Peker cautions that should this security relationship deteriorate, Turkey could face dire consequences despite any advancements in its defense industry. Thus, while Erdogan may currently be enjoying several favorable developments, the overall picture remains complex and precarious.

In summary, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is benefiting from several geopolitical developments, including potential stability in Syria, progress in resolving the Kurdish conflict, and improved economic indicators. However, significant risks and challenges lie ahead, particularly related to regional stability, coalition politics, and international relations. Erdogan’s situation, though appearing favorable at the moment, is fraught with complexities that may hinder his aspirations.

Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com