Scientists Warn of Increasing Extreme Rainfall in Kenya as Long…

A recent climate study indicates that heavy rainfall events in Kenya are expected to increase in both intensity and frequency, resulting in a higher risk of flooding. While some areas may experience rainfall deficits, when rainfall does occur, it will likely be in more intense bursts. This has significant implications for agriculture and communities, necessitating improved disaster preparedness and response measures.

Research published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal reveals that heavy rainfall events in Kenya will likely intensify, with extreme precipitation occurrences increasing due to global warming. This study indicates significant implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihood stability in East Africa as greenhouse gas emissions rise.

The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) emphasizes that there will be an increase in both the intensity and frequency of flooding in East Africa, predicting a trend toward more severe heavy precipitation events. Kenya’s shifting rainfall patterns coincide with forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which both predict erratic and extreme rainfall for the March-April-May (MAM) season.

KMD’s Climate Outlook for MAM 2025 anticipates above-average rainfall in western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while northeastern Kenya and coastal areas may see below-average precipitation. Forecasts from ICPAC also project below-normal rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, raising concerns about water shortages and prolonged dry periods.

Despite predictions of rainfall deficits in certain regions, the study warns that when rainfall occurs, it is expected to manifest in intense bursts. This increased frequency of short-duration precipitation events, alongside rising heat stress, poses significant risks to agriculture and livestock production.

Extreme rainfall events carry the risk of flash floods, which can lead to infrastructure damage, community displacement, and an increase in waterborne diseases. The models simulate severe precipitation events over critical areas, indicating worsening conditions in high-emission scenarios. Historical patterns of rainfall variability have previously led to devastating floods and droughts in Kenya, contributing to economic and humanitarian crises.

In light of forecasts indicating heavy rainfall in some regions, other parts of Kenya remain at risk of drought. The study notes that regions like parts of Somalia and northern Kenya face neutral or declining drought risks, while others, like Tanzania, may experience worsening drought conditions. Temperature forecasts suggest warmer-than-normal conditions, particularly in coastal and northern regions, could exacerbate evaporation rates and storm intensity.

To address the challenges posed by changing rainfall patterns, authorities encourage proactive disaster preparedness and improved response strategies.

The current climate study reveals that Kenya is preparing for an increase in extreme rainfall events, leading to heightened risks of flooding and associated economic and humanitarian challenges. Despite some areas facing drought conditions, the intensity of rainfall when it occurs may exacerbate the situation for agriculture and infrastructure. Enhanced disaster preparedness and response strategies are imperative to mitigate the risks associated with these changing climate patterns.

Original Source: www.kenyans.co.ke