Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 Update: Right Before Landfall
Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 is moving towards the coast with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm prior to landfall. Additionally, a separate system in the Atlantic poses a lower risk of development due to unfavorable conditions.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 has formed and is currently situated near latitude 17.5 North and longitude 85.7 West, progressing towards the west-northwest at a velocity of approximately 7 mph. As this system approaches the coastline, a change in direction towards the west is anticipated tonight and into Saturday. Presently, the system exhibits maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, with the possibility of higher gusts. Forecasts indicate a likelihood of gradual strengthening, with the system expected to attain tropical storm status prior to making landfall tomorrow. The formation chance for this system remains notably high, with a 70 percent probability within the next 48 hours, alongside the same probability extending out to seven days. The estimated minimum central pressure of the system is recorded at 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches. In conjunction with this system, a NOAA buoy located in the Yucatan Basin has reported a sustained wind speed of 31 mph, including gusts up to 38 mph. Furthermore, a separate system identified as AL94 is present in the Atlantic, located north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, characterized by a trough of low pressure that is continuing to generate showers and thunderstorms across a significant area extending several hundred miles northward from these locations. However, the development of this disturbance is expected to progress slowly as it moves westward to west-northwestward at an approximate speed of 20 mph, tracking towards Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. It should be noted that due to strong upper-level winds anticipated next week, the likelihood of further development for this disturbance is minimal. The formation chance for AL94 over the next 48 hours and 7 days is estimated at 30 percent.
The discussion surrounding Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 and the associated developments in the Atlantic indicates a significant focus on systems that exhibit the potential for strengthening into named tropical storms. The classification systems established by meteorological agencies inform the public and aid in preparedness for coastal impacts, particularly as these systems approach landfall. The importance of monitoring wind patterns, pressure systems, and upper-level wind conditions is crucial in forecasting the trajectories and potential intensification of tropical cyclones.
In summary, Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 is poised to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall, with a high probability of formation recorded at 70 percent. Additionally, another system in the Atlantic shows slower development prospects due to environmental conditions. Continued monitoring and assessment will be necessary as these systems evolve.
Original Source: www.news4jax.com
