Study Finds Atlantic Current Shutdown Unlikely This Century, but Weakening Expected
Computer simulations indicate that a total shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is unlikely this century. While a weakening of the current system may lead to significant climatic impacts, recent studies provide a more optimistic outlook compared to previous predictions of imminent collapse. Continued research is necessary to monitor the AMOC’s health amid climate dynamics.
Recent computer simulations suggest that a total collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is unlikely to occur before the end of the century. This finding offers relief in light of previous studies that raised concerns regarding a potential abrupt shutdown due to climate change, which could lead to extreme weather disruptions in Europe and other regions.
The AMOC is essential for global weather patterns, moving warm water northward and cold water southward. The phenomenon, once depicted in disaster films like “The Day After Tomorrow,” has been scrutinized for its possible implications on weather, sea levels, and agricultural patterns. Lead author Jonathan Baker, an oceanographer at the United Kingdom’s Met Office, noted that while a complete shutdown is not anticipated by 2100, the system is expected to weaken significantly.
Baker’s study utilized 34 different extreme climate change simulation models to assess the AMOC’s future. Results indicated no total collapse before 2100; earlier fears of imminent disaster were tempered by these findings. Despite this positive outlook, Baker cautioned that a weakening AMOC could still yield significant climate-related consequences.
The AMOC relies on the cooling of warm water in the Arctic, causing it to sink and flow southward. However, climate change is adding freshwater from melting ice, thus disrupting this process. Baker highlighted a crucial discovery that a secondary mechanism in the Southern Ocean could help maintain AMOC activity by upwelling warmer water back to the surface.
Experts like Andreas Schmittner from Oregon State University acknowledged Baker’s focus on the role of the Southern Ocean winds, which can sustain the AMOC amidst climate change scenarios. Without a complete collapse, one can still expect repercussions that could affect crops and fish stocks, although Europe going into a severe freeze may be avoided.
The strength of the AMOC is currently measured in Sverdrups, standing at approximately 17 Sverdrups, demonstrating a decline from past levels. Debate exists among scientists regarding the definition of an AMOC shutdown; Baker’s threshold is zero, while others argue that significant weakening occurs at about 5 Sverdrups. Notably, Baker’s analysis reveals that a severe weakening remains a possibility, which could bring substantial negative impacts, warranting further study and caution.
In summary, the likelihood of a complete collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation within this century appears minimal according to recent simulations. However, a weakening of the current system is highly probable, potentially leading to major climate impacts despite avoiding the drastic scenarios previously considered. Continued monitoring and research on this critical system are essential to understand the broader implications of climate change.
Original Source: www.detroitnews.com
