India Anticipates Normal Monsoon Season, Expert Forecasts Positive Rain Outlook
Experts forecast a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon for India this year, attributing it to the absence of El Niño. The IMD’s predictions, expected soon, will confirm this trend, marking a potential second consecutive year of normal rainfall following last year’s below-normal conditions, crucial for agriculture and water supply.
Weather experts predict that India is likely to experience a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon from June to September this year, attributed to the absence of El Niño conditions. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, cited global forecasts indicating average to above-average rainfall across the country, according to analyses from the UK Met Office and other agencies. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its initial monsoon forecast shortly.
If these predictions hold, India will witness a second consecutive year of normal monsoon rains in 2025, following below-normal precipitation in 2023. During the critical June to September period, India receives approximately 70 to 75% of its annual rainfall, which significantly enhances agricultural prospects and replenishes water reservoirs. Deoras emphasized that the lack of adverse effects from the El Niño Southern Oscillation is a key factor supporting a normal monsoon season.
Deoras noted that other sub-seasonal weather elements will play a role in influencing monsoon rainfall, advising that it is premature to ascertain the timing of the monsoon’s onset in Kerala or its subsequent progression. The IMD recently indicated a 75% probability of a transition to ‘neutral’ conditions in the El Niño Southern Oscillation by April 2025, which is expected to remain steady through the year, further enhancing the likelihood of a normal monsoon.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, confirmed that El Niño conditions are unlikely to affect the monsoon this year. Furthermore, the weather office predicts that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to persist throughout the upcoming monsoon season. In 2024, India experienced 8% more rainfall than the long-period average, classified as ‘above normal’, although last year’s forecasts suggested normal conditions, which resulted in below-normal rains.
Significantly, nearly half of India’s agricultural lands rely on monsoon rains for the cultivation of kharif crops, such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. Additionally, adequate rainfall ensures sufficient soil moisture for the sowing of rabi or winter crops, including wheat and pulses. The southwest monsoon typically begins over the Kerala coast by June 1 and spreads throughout the country by the first week of July, withdrawing from northwest India by mid-September and completing its withdrawal by October 15.
In conclusion, weather predictions indicate a likely normal southwest monsoon in India for the upcoming season, primarily due to the absence of El Niño conditions. Enhanced rainfall during this critical period would support agricultural viability and improve water resource levels. The IMD’s forthcoming forecasts are anticipated with great interest as they will provide further insights into the monsoon’s expected behavior, given the importance of this season for India’s agricultural landscape.
Original Source: www.financialexpress.com
