The Anticipation of the Next Major Earthquake: Insights and Predictions

Myanmar recently experienced a devastating earthquake, reminding us of the impending “Big One” expected primarily along fault lines such as the San Andreas Fault and the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Historical data reveals catastrophic earthquakes in the past, with the 1960 Valdivia earthquake being the most powerful. Significant risks also exist in other regions like the Himalayas and the Philippines, necessitating preparedness for potential disasters.

As of March 29, 2025, Myanmar experienced a significant earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale, affecting not only Mandalay but also neighboring countries, including Thailand. With hundreds feared dead and property losses reaching into the billions, this quake emphasizes the need for preparedness against such natural disasters. Simultaneously, it brings to mind expectations surrounding a potential “Big One” that many predict will occur at some point in the future, with uncertainty surrounding its timing.

Historically, the most powerful earthquake recorded was the Valdivia Earthquake in Chile in 1960, measuring between 9.4 and 9.6 on the Richter scale. It lasted around ten minutes, causing tsunami waves that impacted various regions, including Hawaii, Japan, and Australia. The estimated death toll ranges from 1,000 to 6,000 people, but exact figures remain unverified. Another significant earthquake, the Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004, measured 9.2–9.3 and resulted in over 200,000 fatalities across several countries, making it one of the deadliest in the 21st century.

The term “The Big One” originally referred to a potential catastrophic earthquake expected along the San Andreas Fault in California, based on research by geologists Mason Hill and Thomas Dibblee in 1953. Subsequent findings indicated that earthquakes with magnitudes between 7 and 8 could devastate major cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Various films, including “Earthquake” and “San Andreas,” have contributed to popularizing this concept.

Recent geological research has shifted focus from the San Andreas Fault to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends from Vancouver, Canada, to Northern California. This area may experience major earthquakes between magnitudes 8 and 9.2, posing a risk of substantial damage to urban centers like Seattle and parts of Washington, potentially affecting over five million residents. While not as potent as the Valdivia Earthquake, the impact would span a vast region.

The anticipated destruction from this Big One would be severe, with predictions estimating tens of thousands of casualties and millions of people rendered homeless. Experts warn of extensive infrastructure damage, complicating rescue efforts due to disrupted communication and transportation systems. Evidence from past seismic events suggests a significant earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone is inevitable, but its timing remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from a 37 percent chance of occurrence by 2060.

While the focus on The Big One often centers on the U.S., experts caution about potential catastrophic earthquakes in other regions, such as the Himalayas and the Philippines. The so-called Great Himalayan Earthquake, estimated to reach around 8 on the Richter scale, could severely impact densely populated areas like Delhi and Nepal. Additionally, the Marikina Valley fault system in the Philippines could experience a 7-magnitude earthquake, resulting in significant casualties and damage. The exact timing of such events remains speculative, but the risk is a serious concern.

In conclusion, seismic experts highlight the inevitability of significant earthquakes, including the potentially devastating Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. While we cannot precisely predict when such a catastrophe will manifest, preparation remains critical. Furthermore, the intensity of earthquakes in other regions, such as the Himalayas, could lead to even greater devastation than the anticipated Big One in the U.S. The importance of readiness to face these eventualities cannot be overstated.

Original Source: indianexpress.com