AccuWeather Forecasts Near to Above Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather predicts a near to above average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, expecting 13-18 named storms including 3-5 major hurricanes. Factors such as warm sea temperatures and the Bermuda-Azores High influence the forecast. Residents in the Virgin Islands are urged to prepare accordingly and stay informed about potential threats and changes in emergency management protocols.
AccuWeather meteorologists forecast a “near to above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, as announced in a recent report. Residents in the Virgin Islands are urged to prepare for potential threats, given the season’s duration runs from June 1 to November 30. The report outlines expectations of numerous storms, hurricanes, and direct impacts on the United States during this period.
According to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, between 13 and 18 named storms are anticipated, which include seven to ten hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher. DaSilva also indicated a 20 percent likelihood of experiencing more than 18 named storms this season. Several factors, such as warm ocean water temperatures and the position of the Bermuda-Azores High, play significant roles in shaping this forecast.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles significantly influence tropical development. The report explains that the La Niña phase, characterized by cooler ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, often reduces wind shear, facilitating cyclone development, while El Niño increases wind shear and inhibits storm formation. A neutral phase of ENSO may occur during the upcoming hurricane season.
In further discussions, DaSilva elaborated on the ENSO phases, indicating that neutral conditions could still foster favorable cyclonic development. He observed that La Niña might persist through early summer, with conditions then transitioning to neutral for the majority of the hurricane season. Though La Niña yields an active hurricane season, a neutral ENSO phase can also support a significant number of storms, albeit to a lesser extent.
DaSilva detailed the interaction of sea surface temperatures and the Bermuda-Azores High with hurricane dynamics. He highlighted that current sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are above historical averages, which tends to encourage tropical development via lower surface pressure. The Bermuda-Azores High’s position impacts whether storms veer out to sea or venture towards the Caribbean and Gulf regions.
The prediction methodology involved analyzing prior years with atmospheric patterns resembling those anticipated for 2025, identifying similarities with the harsh Atlantic hurricane season of 2017, which saw catastrophic storms like Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Although historical patterns provide direction, they do not guarantee future storm paths or impacts.
In light of the impending hurricane season, DaSilva advised residents, particularly in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, to create comprehensive hurricane preparation plans. Continuing vigilance is paramount, as even distant storms can pose rip-current risks. Individuals are encouraged to consult local emergency management for updated evacuation and recovery procedures specific to their areas.
As the official start of hurricane season approaches, forecasts will be refined. Tropical development is noted to occur outside established timelines, emphasizing the need for ongoing awareness. Residents can access weather alerts via VITEMA and the National Weather Service, while the Source Weather Page offers regular weather updates, further ensuring preparedness.
In conclusion, AccuWeather’s forecast points to a potentially active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with expectations of up to 18 named storms and significant threats to the Virgin Islands. Factors such as warm sea surface temperatures, the Bermuda-Azores High, and the ENSO cycles are critical in determining storm activity. Residents are strongly advised to remain vigilant, prepared, and informed, as they may face increased risks during the season.
Original Source: stcroixsource.com
