High Probability of Cyclone Development off Western Australia’s Northern Coast
Tropical low 28U is likely to form a cyclone off Western Australia’s Kimberley coast by the weekend. It may become a category one cyclone, impacting areas such as Derby and Kuri Bay. Significant rain is expected, with local farmers hopeful for moisture. The Bureau of Meteorology warns of changing conditions and encourages monitoring ongoing forecasts.
There is a significant likelihood of a cyclone forming off the north coast of Western Australia as tropical low 28U approaches. It is expected to reach the Kimberley coastline early Saturday morning, potentially developing into a category one cyclone. The West Kimberley town of Derby and surrounding areas, including Kuri Bay, are in the predicted path of this weather system.
On Thursday afternoon, tropical low 28U was situated approximately 440 kilometers north-north-west of Derby, moving towards land at a speed of 7 kilometers per hour. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has indicated a 55 percent chance that this low will evolve into a tropical cyclone by Friday evening, with the cyclone expected to cross north of Derby early Saturday.
Helen Reid, a senior forecaster at BOM, projected that parts of the Kimberley region could receive in excess of 200 millimeters of rain from this system. She noted, “It is all dependent on whether it stays as a conglomeration of thunderstorms or whether it forms into a tropical cyclone… It could be interesting, it will be touch and go as to whether it gets a bit more action.”
Chris Towne, the manager of Gogo Station near Fitzroy Crossing, expressed cautious hope that the system would bring helpful late wet season rainfall. He mentioned the recent dry spell, saying, “We are hoping we might get a bit of rain out of these changes coming through.” Ideally, he hopes for around 75 millimeters of rain, as any moisture would be beneficial for the region’s heat-stricken vegetation.
Helen Reid added that the BOM has already observed signs of thunderstorm activity within the tropical low. Regardless of whether it evolves into a cyclone, she predicts rain across most of the Kimberley due to the monsoon flow. “Everywhere in the Kimberley is looking at getting a bit of rain, maybe 10 to 15 millimeters, even 20 to 30,” she stated, emphasizing the forecast’s variability. She encouraged communities to “Watch this space very carefully,” as conditions may change rapidly.
In summary, the western coast of Australia faces a high risk of cyclone formation due to tropical low 28U. The potential cyclone is expected to impact the Kimberley region, particularly Derby and Kuri Bay. Significant rainfall is anticipated, which could support local agricultural needs. As weather conditions evolve, residents are advised to stay updated with forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
