Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops Northwest of Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Courtney, a Category 1 system, has formed northwest of Western Australia and is expected to move quickly westward, unlikely to impact the mainland. The cyclone season features an increase in severe storms, with DTN APAC offering specialized forecasting services to help businesses manage weather-related risks.
Tropical Cyclone Courtney has emerged as a Category 1 system northwest of Western Australia, marking the eighth cyclone of this Australian season. This cyclone began as a tropical low near Bali and gradually shifted west-southwest before being officially named by the Bureau of Meteorology on March 26, 2024. As of this morning, Courtney was situated approximately 900 kilometers northwest of Exmouth.
The forecast indicates that Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move west swiftly, driven by a high-pressure ridge to the south. While it is expected to pass within 500 kilometers of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, direct impacts on these island communities or the Australian mainland are unlikely.
The 2024-25 Australian tropical cyclone season witnessed a late start, with Cyclone Robyn forming in late November and subsequent activity remaining limited. However, from mid-January to early April, tropical cyclone formation accelerated, yielding six out of the eight cyclones for the season. Notably, 75% of these cyclones reached category 3 or higher, doubling the typical severe intensity rate, with costly systems like Zelia and Alfred incurring over 2 billion dollars in damages.
An active monsoon, prompted by a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is expected to enhance the formation of new systems in northern Australia. A mass of convective clouds off the Kimberley coast is likely to organize into tropical low 28U over the next day. This system may intensify into a tropical cyclone but is anticipated to cross land by Saturday, limiting further development.
Should tropical low 28U not evolve into a cyclone, monsoonal winds will still lead to heavy rainfall and potential flooding across the Kimberley region, with projected accumulations of 100-200mm and localized amounts exceeding 300-400mm. The MJO is expected to weaken upon its northeast movement, restricting significant cyclone developments until the next MJO burst later in April, coinciding with the onset of the dry season.
DTN APAC offers specialized forecasting and threat analysis services for businesses facing the challenges posed by increasingly severe weather events. By providing timely updates and alerts on developing low-pressure systems, we ensure businesses can prepare and safeguard their operations. Our advanced weather intelligence aids in making informed decisions swiftly, whether concerning scheduling adjustments or site protection. For more information on our products and services, please contact us at [email protected].
Tropical Cyclone Courtney represents the eighth cyclone of the Australian season, having formed as a Category 1 system and expected to move swiftly westward away from populated areas. While the cyclone season has seen an increase in severe storms this year, there are indications of potential new developments in the coming weeks. DTN APAC remains dedicated to providing crucial weather intelligence to assist businesses in navigating these challenges effectively.
Original Source: apac.dtn.com
