Drought Concerns in Brazil: Showers Anticipated, Yet Below Normal
Brazil faces significant dry conditions affecting its second-season corn crop, with recent rainfall falling well below normal levels. This situation poses risks to crop development, particularly the crucial pollination phase in April. Upcoming weather forecasts suggest some rain, but overall moisture levels remain insufficient amidst continuing drought concerns.
Recent weeks have seen increasing concerns regarding dry conditions across Brazil, particularly impacting the second-season corn crop, known as safrinha. While the soybean harvest is nearing completion, timely wet season rainfall is crucial for safrinha corn, which must be planted as the typical wet season continues through March. Unfortunately, the rainfall during this period has fallen short of expectations, requiring urgent attention from producers across various states.
According to DTN estimates, Brazil’s agricultural regions face significant moisture deficits over the last 30, 60, and 90 days. Mato Grosso, the main producer of safrinha corn, is performing better than other regions, yet the eastern states report rainfall totals reaching only 20% or less of normal levels. This limited rainfall is jeopardizing corn growth at a critical time, as certain areas have received less than an inch of precipitation in the past month.
Even with anticipated regular rainfall through May, it may not be sufficient to mitigate the ongoing drought in several states. Mid-to-late April is significant for corn pollination, coinciding with the expected decline in wet-season moisture. The crop depends heavily on subsoil moisture for kernel filling and overall yield, yet without adequate levels, this process could be adversely affected.
Recent satellite analyses from NOAA and NASA indicate a worrying trend, with many growing regions outside Mato Grosso facing drought conditions. Fortunately, forecasting models predict a more active weather pattern in the coming days, with a stalled front in central Brazil leading to scattered showers extending from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais through March. Another weather system from Argentina is projected to bring additional rain before the end of the month.
Expected rainfall amounts until March 30 vary, generally ranging from 1 to 2 inches, with some regions in Minas Gerais potentially receiving up to 3 inches. However, these amounts remain below historical averages, particularly impacting southern Goias and southeastern Mato Grosso. Therefore, while rainfall will maintain current conditions, it falls short of necessary to revitalize soil moisture levels.
It is important to note that weather models have recently overestimated the potential rainfall in central Brazil. This week, isolated showers have replaced the anticipated widespread rain, with most areas receiving around an inch or less despite forecasts suggesting higher totals. If these discrepancies continue, producers may face a more challenging situation moving forward.
In summary, Brazil is currently grappling with concerning dry conditions that threaten the safrinha corn crop. Despite the forecast for scattered showers, the expected moisture levels remain insufficient for sustainable crop development. The reliance on subsoil moisture for key growth phases further complicates the situation, and ongoing weather model inaccuracies may exacerbate challenges for producers. Long-term outlooks suggest continued difficulties as drier conditions are expected to persist moving into April.
Original Source: www.dtnpf.com
