Kenya: KMD Forecasts Heavy Downpours for March-April-May Long Rains Season
The Kenya Meteorological Department warns of heavy downpours as the March-April-May Long Rains season begins. Significant rainfall is forecasted, especially in highland areas and the northeastern region, with specific thresholds outlined for onset confirmation. Occasional rainfall is expected in the coastal regions, with peak rains anticipated in May.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has advised citizens to remain vigilant in anticipation of heavy downpours as the March-April-May (MAM) Long Rains season commences. KMD Director David Gikungu confirmed that rainfall is anticipated to persist throughout the country this week.
In his forecast, Gikungu highlighted that certain areas, particularly the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley—including Nairobi County, the Lake Victoria Basin, and northeastern Kenya—are at risk for isolated heavy rainfall events. Notably, rainfall from March 3 to March 9, 2025, showed significant increases in the southeastern lowlands and northeastern regions.
The period from March 10 to March 16 marked the official initiation of the MAM 2025 season, particularly influencing the highlands west of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin. Subsequent rain was also recorded in parts of the Rift Valley, Nairobi, and surrounding highlands.
KMD elucidated that the MAM season’s onset occurs when two key criteria are met, including at least 20 mm of rainfall over three consecutive days and no dry spells lasting seven days within the following 21 days. For the northern regions, a lower threshold of 10 mm is required.
Gikungu indicated that the highlands east of the Rift Valley are expected to experience the season’s onset this week, with the northeastern region also slated for rain between March 18 and 31. He noted, however, that subsequent dry spells may follow.
Occasional rainfall is projected for the northwestern parts and coastal regions of Kenya throughout March 2025, with the coastal area expected to experience the season’s peak in May and onset in April.
In summary, the Kenya Meteorological Department has officially marked the start of the March-April-May Long Rains season, with expectations for heavy rainfall across various regions. Citizens are urged to heed warnings and be prepared for potential isolation downpours, particularly in highland areas and parts of northeastern Kenya. Rainfall patterns may yield dry spells following initial precipitation, necessitating vigilance among residents in affected regions.
Original Source: allafrica.com
