World May Exceed 1.5°C Warming Threshold by September 2029
The Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts the world may exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold by September 2029. Current temperatures have already reached 1.38°C above pre-industrial levels, representing an urgent call for global climate action. Experts stress the need for immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate severe climate impacts.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that the world could exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold as early as September 2029 if current temperature trends persist. This timeline is significantly sooner than the previously projected early 2030s. The recent data indicates that ambient temperatures have already reached 1.38°C above pre-industrial levels.
C3S monitors global temperature trends and has revealed that, for the first time in its ERA5 dataset, surface temperatures have reached or exceeded 1.5°C above the average from 1850-1900 for 12 consecutive months. This alarming trend emphasizes the need for immediate climate action, as surpassing the 1.5°C threshold could lead to severe climate impacts affecting millions worldwide.
Experts predict that approximately 14% of the world’s population would experience severe heat waves at 1.5 degrees of warming, with this figure expected to double at 2 degrees. Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), highlighted the risks associated with exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, indicating that every fraction of a degree is crucial for ecological stability.
M Rajeevan, former secretary of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, labeled the findings alarming but not unexpected. He remarked on the serious implications of surpassing 1.5°C, emphasizing that this threshold is being breached much earlier than anticipated. The synthesis report of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report projected that the threshold would likely be surpassed in the 2030s, raising concerns on a global scale.
Recent climate patterns have shown unprecedented temperatures globally over the past 18 months, attributed partially to the El Niño weather pattern. Meanwhile, shifts in climate policy, particularly in the US under former President Donald Trump, have raised questions about international climate efforts and cooperation, as the US withdrew from the Paris climate agreement.
As many countries have yet to update their climate action plans by the February deadlines, the urgency for renewed commitments ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil becomes critical. Countries like Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom are among the few that have updated their nationally determined contributions, reflecting the need for all nations to significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate global warming effects.
In summary, the potential breach of the 1.5°C threshold by September 2029 underscores the urgent need for global climate action. With rising temperatures already posing severe risks, experts emphasize that immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are essential to avert catastrophic climate impacts. Collaborative efforts by nations, especially in updating and adhering to climate commitments, are crucial in addressing these challenges effectively.
Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com
