Climate Change Intensifies: La Niña’s Cooling Effects Diminished in Warming Landscape
Climate scientists report that climate change is increasingly robust, reducing the effectiveness of La Niña in cooler temperatures. The IMD forecasts an early summer with increased heatwaves. Severe temperature rises were noted in February, alongside limited rainfall. Factors include altered jet streams and the influence of El Niño and La Niña cycles. The WMO suggests a short-lived La Niña and emphasizes the necessity of evaluating ongoing climate change impacts.
Climate scientists have indicated a notable amplification of climate change effects, suggesting that the cooling influences of La Niña will prove ineffective in the face of increasing global temperatures. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of summer with above-normal temperatures, leading to prolonged and intense heatwave periods. The country recorded its highest February temperatures since 1901 accompanied by the fifth-lowest rainfall since 2001.
Human-induced climate change continues to establish a new norm characterized by warmer winters and shorter spring seasons. The phenomenon of ‘year-to-year variability’ has also been emphasized by scientists as they monitor changing weather patterns. Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at the Centre for Climate Studies at IIT Bombay, highlighted the significance of rainfall as a natural cooling mechanism essential for temperature regulation.
Raghu Murtugudde, an earth system scientist from IIT Bombay, referred to regular disturbances in temperature patterns between December and February, which are influenced by jet stream dynamics. Jet streams, which are high-altitude winds, significantly impact weather by altering their north-south positions. Mondal added that her research correlates a northward movement of these winds prior to the monsoon with the characteristics of heatwaves, including their intensity and duration.
Vimal Mishra, chair professor at IIT Gandhinagar, noted the contributions of El Niño and La Niña — the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — to these trends. He explained that El Niño typically introduces warmer temperatures after winter, while La Niña favors cooler days. The ENSO cycle alternates between these two phases approximately every 2 to 7 years.
Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the weak La Niña which developed in December 2024 is expected to be short-lived. Predictions indicated a 60 percent likelihood of La Niña conditions emerging between July and September following the ENSO-neutral state that commenced in May 2024. Furthermore, the Copernicus Climate Change Service has revealed an average temperature increase of 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1990-2020 standards for March 2024 to February 2025.
Murtugudde remarked that despite the presence of cold waters in the tropical Pacific, warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific persisted, contradicting typical La Niña behavior. The notable warming trends observed throughout 2023 remain unexplained. Future projections indicate that El Niño events may become increasingly frequent and intense, with half of these events expected to be classified as extreme.
India experienced an unprecedented number of heatwave days in the summer of 2024, totaling 536, marking the highest occurrence in 14 years. According to IMD, regions in northwestern India recorded the warmest June since 1901. Mishra elaborated that even under likely ENSO-neutral conditions, one cannot overlook the harsh heatwave phenomena, especially with elevated temperatures already prevalent in March. The WMO anticipates a 60 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions from March to May 2025, accentuating that while El Niño could present severe challenges, La Niña might not mitigate the impacts of climate change effectively.
The article discusses the intensification of climate change effects, indicating that La Niña’s cooling impact is likely inadequate in a warming world. Current meteorological trends show alarming heat and unusual weather patterns across India. With forecasts predicting ongoing climate extremes, it is crucial to recognize the implications of human-induced climate change on global weather systems and the limitations of traditional climate oscillation patterns.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
