Potential Coalition Scenarios Following the German Election

Germany faces political uncertainty following the February 23 federal election, as Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU will require coalition formation to achieve a majority. The most likely outcome is a grand coalition with the SPD, but other combinations exist, including the ‘Kiwi’ and ‘Kenya’ coalitions, as well as the potential for a minority government, each presenting unique challenges.

Germany is poised to experience political instability following the federal election scheduled for February 23, largely due to opposition leader Friedrich Merz, whose conservative CDU/CSU is leading in the polls and will likely necessitate coalition formation to attain a majority. Merz faces challenges in forming a cohesive alliance, given that smaller parties might cross the 5% threshold and complicate seat distribution, thereby requiring two coalition partners.

A grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, which has occurred four times since World War II, is viewed as the most probable outcome. Although both parties have successfully collaborated previously, ideological differences—particularly on tax policies and migration—could hinder deeper reforms. The Eurasia Group assesses this coalition’s likelihood at 60%.

An alternative possibility is a “Kiwi” coalition comprising the CDU/CSU and the Greens, although this option appears less likely, with a probability rating of 15%. Despite some alignment in foreign policy, deep divisions on domestic issues, especially concerning migration, may prove to be significant hurdles. Markus Soeder, CSU leader, has publicly expressed opposition to this partnership.

If several smaller parties gain parliamentary representation, a “Kenya” coalition of the CDU, SPD, and Greens could materialize, symbolized by their shared colors with the Kenyan flag. Such configurations are uncommon at the federal level, with a mere 10% likelihood according to the Eurasia Group.

A further unlikely scenario is the “Germany” coalition, which would involve the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP. This coalition faces challenges as prior tensions over budget disagreements have previously led to the collapse of cooperative efforts among these factions, also estimated at a 10% probability.

There is also the option of a minority government, which has been successfully implemented in certain German states. This model involves parties collaborating on a case-by-case basis for legislative proposals. Yet, it remains an unprecedented approach at the federal level at the inception of a legislative period due to concerns regarding potential instability.

In summary, Germany’s political landscape post-election is set to be characterized by uncertainty as the CDU/CSU, under Merz, must navigate potential coalitions amidst significant ideological divides. The grand coalition with the SPD appears the most feasible, although various combinations, including ‘Kiwi’ and ‘Kenya’, as well as the concept of a minority government may surface as alternatives, each fraught with challenges.

Original Source: www.usnews.com