Current Tropical Cyclone Activity Report from the Pacific Disaster Center
The PDC reports on January 30, 2025, highlights ongoing tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean, specifically 11S and 12S (Elvis), with forecasts indicating potential struggles for 11S and a weakening transition for 12S. Additionally, two disturbances, Invest 96P and Invest 99S, are noted in the Southwest Pacific with low cyclone development potential.
The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) released its Tropical Cyclone Activity Report on January 30, 2025. Current tropical cyclones include Tropical Cyclone 11S, located about 590 nautical miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia, and Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis), positioned roughly 619 nautical miles east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. In the Northeast and Central Pacific Ocean, there are no active tropical cyclones, with seasonal reports scheduled to resume in mid-2025.
Tropical Cyclone 11S is facing challenges due to strong easterly shear and the intrusion of dry air, causing it to struggle to maintain intensity with sustained winds of 35 knots and gusts to 45 knots. For the next 12-18 hours, the cyclone is expected to move westward, gradually slowing down due to a weakening ridging pattern. After 36 hours, it may track further southwest as conditions become slightly more favorable.
Conversely, Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) is exhibiting signs of intensification with sustained winds of 40 knots and gusting to 50 knots. The cyclone benefits from warm waters providing energy and is anticipated to shift southeastward in the coming days. However, it is forecasted to undergo extratropical transition within 48 hours due to increasing shear effects.
In the South Pacific, two disturbances are being monitored: Invest 96P and Invest 99S. Invest 96P is approximately 194 nautical miles southeast of Cairns, Australia, exhibiting a poorly organized circulation and low development potential. Similarly, Invest 99S is located about 243 nautical miles south-southwest of Christmas Island, showing some potential for further organization, albeit with a low likelihood of cyclone development in the next 24 hours.
This article provides an overview of the current tropical cyclone activity within the Pacific region as reported by the PDC. It details the locations and characteristics of the active cyclones, discusses their expected paths and potential for intensification, and notes the absence of cyclonic activity in both the Northeast and Central Pacific due to the conclusion of their respective hurricane seasons. Additionally, it highlights two areas of disturbed weather being monitored for potential development. Tropical cyclones pose significant risks to coastal regions, influencing weather patterns and leading to considerable economic and humanitarian impacts. Organizations like the Pacific Disaster Center play a crucial role in monitoring these systems and providing timely updates to mitigate risks and enhance preparedness against natural disasters. Understanding the dynamics of tropical cyclones, including their formation, movement, and intensification, is essential for predicting their behavior and issuing necessary warnings to safeguard lives and property.
In summary, the Tropical Cyclone Activity Report indicates that while Tropical Cyclone 11S faces significant challenges to maintain its strength, it is projected to explore a more favorable environment in the coming hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S appears to be intensifying but is expected to undergo extratropical transition shortly. Meanwhile, Invest 96P and Invest 99S are being monitored for their potential development, with current assessments indicating low likelihoods of significant cyclone activity in the near term.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
