Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi: A New Challenge for Madagascar in 2025
On January 11, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was declared off Madagascar’s northeast coast, marking the first cyclone of the year. Though not as powerful as TC Chido, which devastated the region in December 2024, Dikeledi poses severe risks with red cyclone alerts issued for multiple areas, indicating potential flooding and public health crises affecting over 22,500 children. The cyclone is forecasted to intensify while passing through the Mozambique Channel, emphasizing the ongoing vulnerability to tropical storms in the region.
On January 11, 2025, at 11:00 AM AEDT, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was officially declared near the northeast coast of Madagascar, following a six-day period as a tropical storm in the southwest Indian Ocean. Although it marks the first cyclone of the year, it follows TC Chido, which caused widespread devastation in December 2024. TC Chido resulted in over $675 million in damages and tragically contributed to 39 fatalities, marking it the most destructive cyclone in the region for nearly a century.
Local meteorologists have indicated that the anticipated consequences of TC Dikeledi might be more severe, despite expectations that it will not reach the same intensity as its predecessor. Regions such as Diana, Sava, and northern Sofia have been placed under red cyclone alerts, while Boeny is under a yellow alert. These warnings suggest an imminent risk of extensive flooding, riverine inundation, and landslides, with rainfall accumulations exceeding 100mm and winds reaching up to 130 km/h, alongside forecasted storm surges exceeding 8 meters.
As Dikeledi traverses through Madagascar, it has already demonstrated its potential for significant rainfall and wind damage. Reports indicate gusts reaching 170 km/h, with local rainfalls reported at 50mm/h along eastern coastal areas. However, the limited infrastructure for weather monitoring challenges the accuracy of rainfall totals in affected locales. Current modeling anticipates 150mm of rainfall in the northern and eastern coasts, with as much as 300mm predicted on the cyclone’s western flank.
The imminent danger of flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, presents grave risks, potentially leading to flash floods due to inadequate drainage, landslides, and a surge of water-borne diseases such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Save the Children has estimated that over 22,500 children are at heightened risk of injury, illness, or displacement, facing threats to their homes and education.
TC Dikeledi is projected to continue along the Madagascar coastline, intensifying into a category 3 tropical cyclone as it navigates through the Mozambique Channel. The cyclone is expected to move southward and eventually return to the Indian Ocean. While not anticipated to reach the severity of TC Chido, Dikeledi serves as a stark reminder that the impact of a disaster is defined not merely by its strength but by the breadth and intensity of its consequences.
Tropical cyclones are intense circular storms that originate over warm tropical oceans and are characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and heavy rains. These weather systems can cause severe damage to coastal regions through high winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfall, leading to flooding and infrastructure damage. The South West Indian Ocean is particularly vulnerable to cyclonic activity, making monitoring and preparation crucial for mitigating risks associated with these natural disasters. The past year has highlighted the catastrophic effects of cyclones, exemplified by TC Chido, which underscores the need for vigilance during cyclone season as regions prepare for potential impacts from ensuing storms.
In summary, the emergence of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi marks a critical moment in the 2025 cyclone season, raising alarms over potential dangers in northeastern Madagascar. Despite less severe classifications compared to TC Chido, the risks associated with Dikeledi remain substantial, particularly concerning flooding and public health. It is a reflection of the broader reality that the adverse effects of such weather phenomena extend beyond mere wind strength, emphasizing the importance of effective disaster preparedness and response strategies to safeguard affected populations.
Original Source: www.weatherzone.com.au
