Steady Frequency of Tropical Cyclones, Yet Intensifying Due to Climate Change
The number of tropical cyclones has remained stable at approximately 47 per year since 1980; however, their intensity has surged. The average maximum wind speed has increased from 182 km/h to 192 km/h, and the proportion of category five cyclones has risen by 40%. The implications of these changes reinforce the need for heightened humanitarian efforts and climate action due to increasing storm-related disasters.
Recent research indicates that while the incidence of tropical cyclones has remained consistent, their destructive power has markedly escalated. Analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows an average of 47 cyclones annually since 1980. However, between 1981 and 2010 compared to the most recent decade, there has been a notable increase in cyclone intensity. The average maximum wind speed for cyclones has risen from 182 km/h to 192 km/h, a 5% increase, with the proportion of storms exceeding 250 km/h climbing from 10% to 14%. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supports these findings, attributing this trend to climate change, particularly impacting the most catastrophic storms. Climatologist Robert Vautard highlights that, despite the increasing intensity, humanitarian disasters linked to cyclones are exacerbated by poverty and vulnerability among affected populations.
In just this year until mid-December, 42 cyclones were recorded, including 15 that made landfall; the year’s strongest, Hurricane Milton, had winds gusting at 278 km/h. The West Pacific was significantly affected, with 15 reported typhoons, notably impacting the Philippines. The most recent cyclone, Chido, struck Mayotte on December 16, resulting in 39 confirmed fatalities and over 4,000 individuals injured, showcasing the severe impacts of these intensified storms on communities.
Tropical cyclones, also referred to as hurricanes and typhoons, have been monitored for decades, with data revealing their occurrence rate averaging 47 per year since 1980. However, recent findings suggest that, although the frequency of such storms has not fluctuated significantly, their intensity has increased dramatically. This shift aligns with projections made by climatologists and organizations like the IPCC, which warn of worsening cyclone effects due to climate change. An increase in the average maximum wind speed and the proportion of extremely strong cyclones points to the harmful potential posed to vulnerable populations and the need for enhanced protection measures.
In summary, the research underscores a concerning trend: a stable frequency of tropical cyclones coexists with an alarming rise in their intensity, correlating with climate change. The findings emphasize the urgency of addressing vulnerabilities in affected communities, as their risk during such disasters is compounded by social and economic challenges. The increasing severity of cyclones like Hurricane Milton illustrates the pressing need for proactive measures to mitigate climate impacts and protect vulnerable populations.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
