Syria’s Political Transition: Lessons from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon
The article discusses the political transition in Syria following the fall of the Baath regime, led by HTS. It compares Syria’s situation with Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon, analyzing potential challenges and the importance of a unified central government. The narrative emphasizes the necessity of an inclusive constitution to ensure equal citizenship and avoid sectarian division, highlighting the hope for a stable political future in Syria without external interference.
The recent overthrow of the Baath regime after 61 years has marked a significant transition for Syria, igniting a complex political discourse regarding its future. The opposition, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), successfully seized Damascus on December 8, initiating a new governmental structure. Amidst varying opinions on this political change, some speculate a bright future lies ahead for Syrians, while others warn of potential challenges influenced by the histories of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Historically, Afghanistan’s internal conflicts post-Soviet withdrawal led to a power vacuum that the Taliban exploited. In contrast, the Syrian opposition has pledged to dissolve existing factions and unify under a defense ministry to avoid unnecessary clashes and ensure collective governance. This contrasts with the Afghan scenario, wherein competing factions fragmented the state.
In Iraq, the state emerged divided post-Saddam, manifesting an ethnic-oriented government, resulting in dependence on both the U.S. and Iran. However, Syria’s context differs: the Assad regime’s collapse resulted from indigenous conflict rather than foreign intervention. With Turkey backing the Syrian opposition from a perspective of unity rather than sectarianism, the likelihood of a cohesive governance structure seems promising.
The Lebanese model of governance, wherein political position is allocated based on religious identity, has proved dysfunctional, and this model is unlikely to succeed in Syria. Historical coexistence among Syria’s diverse communities suggests a propensity for a unified governmental approach rather than a segmented ethnic configuration.
Ultimately, the ideal outcome would be a central government that prioritizes equal citizenship over ethnic divisions. Such an approach would honor the diverse fabric of Syrian society and bolster national sovereignty. Only with a constitution that ensures inclusive governance and without foreign interference, may there be hope for a stable and unified Syria.
The article analyses Syria’s political evolution following the recent toppling of the Baath regime, exploring possible futures shaped by historical precedents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon. It examines the risks of internal fragmentation reminiscent of Afghanistan’s civil war and illustrates the divisive governance in Iraq post-U.S. invasion. The article also critiques the failed Lebanese sectarian model, advocating for a centralized government that reflects Syria’s cultural diversity and historical cohesion. It underscores the importance of an inclusive constitution to foster national unity and political stability.
In conclusion, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the Baath regime’s collapse. The future is contingent upon the ability of the new government to unify opposition forces, establish a central governance model, and avoid the pitfalls of ethnic divisiveness. By fostering equal citizenship and inclusivity, Syria can navigate through its challenges and emerge as a stable, sovereign state free from external influences. A constitutional framework embracing all Syrians could pave the path for a promising future.
Original Source: www.dailysabah.com
