The Impact of Climate Change on Cyclone Chido’s Intensity

Cyclone Chido, which recently impacted Mayotte, was significantly intensified by climate change factors, with a study indicating a 40% increase in the likelihood of such storms occurring in a warmer climate. Classified as a Category 4 cyclone, it was the most damaging storm to Mayotte in decades, with severe effects on vulnerable populations and concerns over rising casualties. Models suggest that wind speeds intensified by climate change contributed to its strength.

Recent findings indicate that Cyclone Chido, which recently struck the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte, was significantly intensified by climate change. A preliminary study conducted by scientists from Imperial College London revealed that factors associated with global warming increased the likelihood of cyclones exhibiting Chido’s intensity by approximately 40 percent as of 2024 compared to pre-industrial times.

Chido, classified as a Category 4 cyclone, was the most destructive storm to impact Mayotte in nearly a century, resulting in severe damage to makeshift housing structures, particularly affecting the impoverished communities on the island. The storm’s impact could potentially lead to a rising death toll, with officials expressing concern over the true extent of the disaster’s repercussions.

The study utilized sophisticated computer modeling techniques to address the lack of empirical data, simulating millions of tropical cyclone scenarios to evaluate the influence of climate change on storm intensity. Findings indicated that wind speeds in the vicinity of where Chido made landfall increased by approximately 3 miles per second due to climate change, effectively elevating the cyclone from a Category 3 to a Category 4 storm based on the enhanced atmospheric conditions.

While France’s weather service has not directly attributed Chido’s intensity to global warming, it acknowledges that rising ocean temperatures, exacerbated by human-induced climate change, have contributed to more aggressive storms. Following the cyclone’s passage, Meteo-France attributed the storm’s disastrous effects primarily to its trajectory over Mayotte. Current climate conditions reflect a near 1.3 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures compared to the pre-industrial era, underscoring the increasing frequency and severity of weather anomalies driven by elevated climate temperatures.

The warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to retain moisture, while warmer ocean temperatures enhance the evaporation rates, creating conditions conducive to the formation of intense tropical storms.

The relationship between climate change and tropical storm intensity has garnered attention in recent years, as scientists continue to explore how global warming affects weather patterns. As oceans warm due to anthropogenic activities, the resulting increase in atmospheric moisture and evaporation is believed to contribute to the escalation of cyclone intensity and frequency. Cyclone Chido serves as a recent case study illustrating the potential ramifications of climate change on tropical storm dynamics, particularly in vulnerable regions like Mayotte.

In summary, Cyclone Chido exemplifies the alarming effects of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity. The study from Imperial College London highlights the critical link between rising global temperatures and the increased likelihood and strength of storms like Chido. The impacts on Mayotte’s population underline the urgent need for addressing climate change and preparing for the inevitable repercussions of such severe weather events in vulnerable regions.

Original Source: www.barrons.com