Climate Change to Transform Avalanche Activity in Switzerland by 2100
A recent study forecasts that climate change will reduce overall avalanche occurrences in Switzerland but increase the risk of wet snow avalanches by 2100. While dry snow avalanches are expected to decline due to rising average winter temperatures, wet snow avalanches are projected to become more common, particularly above the tree line. Effective safety measures may involve closing ski resorts in high-risk locations to mitigate potential hazards.
Research from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) forecasts that by the year 2100, climate change will likely reduce the total number of avalanches in Switzerland, while concurrently increasing the occurrence and danger associated with wet snow avalanches. Wet snow avalanches, which result from snow being saturated with meltwater or rainfall, are projected to become more frequent, especially above the tree line. As average winter temperatures may rise by approximately five degrees Celsius, the overall avalanche activity is anticipated to decrease, thereby limiting the frequency of avalanches reaching valley regions. Nonetheless, intense snowfall events are expected to continue, leading to the possibility of larger avalanches at higher elevations that may still reach valleys. SLF’s investigation included several locations across Switzerland, such as the Weissfluhjoch region above Davos and a monitoring station located at 2,700 meters near Zermatt. Findings indicate that while dry snow avalanches may lessen in number, the problem of wet snow avalanches could pose escalated risks in the future. Researchers emphasize that the most effective preventative measure is to close ski resorts situated in high-risk areas. These trends are not confined to Switzerland alone, as the study results may also apply to other Alpine regions and mountain ranges with comparable climatic characteristics.
The report examines the implications of climate change on avalanche dynamics within Switzerland, emphasizing a shift in avalanche behavior through the 21st century. With forecasts indicating significant warming, researchers propose that while the frequency of dry snow avalanches will decline, the peril associated with wet snow avalanches will intensify. This alteration in avalanche patterns is influenced by temperature increases affecting snowpack stability and wetting effects, particularly in areas above the tree line in the Swiss Alps. The information is critical for informing policy and practice regarding snowfall management and ski area safety.
In conclusion, the findings from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research suggest a dual trend regarding avalanches in Switzerland due to climate change. While the overall rate of avalanches may decrease, the incidence of dangerous wet snow avalanches is expected to rise, necessitating enhanced safety measures such as restricting access to vulnerable ski resorts. The broader impact of these findings may extend to other mountainous regions facing similar climatic shifts.
Original Source: www.swissinfo.ch
