Tropical Disturbances: Monitoring and Forecast Updates

Forecasters are monitoring two disturbances; Disturbance AL97 is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday, potentially leading to heavy rains in the western Caribbean. The second disturbance has a low chance of development and is expected to produce local rainfall as well.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring two distinct disturbances affecting the tropical region. One of these disturbances is anticipated to escalate into a tropical depression by Tuesday, bringing significant rainfall to the western Caribbean, as reported by the National Hurricane Center in its 7 a.m. Atlantic update on Sunday. Conversely, the second disturbance located in the Atlantic Ocean is not expected to evolve into a significant weather system this week, if at all. The first disturbance, designated as Disturbance AL97, is characterized as “a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,” with a projected formation probability of 80% over the next two days and 90% over the next week. The National Hurricane Center has stated that “gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.” Even if it does not develop into a tropical depression, there is a notable risk of heavy rainfall impacting several land areas in close proximity, including Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. The second disturbance is presently located east of the southeastern Bahamas and is anticipated to be absorbed by the aforementioned system, resulting in a low development probability of just 10%. The hurricane center has indicated that “slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba.” Similar to the first disturbance, heavy rainfall may occur across regions including the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas, regardless of the second disturbance’s formation.

The topic at hand involves the ongoing monitoring of tropical disturbances that could potentially develop into tropical depressions or storms. The National Hurricane Center plays a critical role in assessing weather patterns in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions. With the hurricane season in effect, the likelihood of weather systems evolving into more organized storms necessitates vigilant observation and timely communication of forecasts to prepare affected communities for potential weather impacts, such as heavy rains and flooding.

In summary, forecasters are actively tracking two disturbances, with Disturbance AL97 likely to strengthen into a tropical depression and bring significant rainfall to the western Caribbean. In contrast, the second disturbance presents a low likelihood of development, with local rain impacts also expected. It is crucial for residents in the potentially affected regions to remain alert and prepared for adverse weather conditions in the coming days.

Original Source: www.miamiherald.com