Invest 97L Likely to Develop into Tropical Storm Rafael as it…

Invest 97L is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael as it moves in the Caribbean Sea with an 80% chance of forming within two days. Although heavy rainfall is expected in surrounding areas, its strength and trajectory upon entry into the Gulf of Mexico remain uncertain, necessitating close attention from weather agencies and local populations.

A weather disturbance identified as Invest 97L in the Caribbean Sea is poised to potentially develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the coming days, according to the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of Sunday morning, this system comprised a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms, but forecasts indicate an 80% chance of development within the next two days and a 90% likelihood over the next week. The NHC suggests that as the system progresses northward to northwestward across the central and western Caribbean, a tropical system is expected to form. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today. The NHC has advised that, irrespective of any development, heavy local rainfall can be anticipated across areas neighbouring the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. They have urged residents in the western Caribbean to stay vigilant, as Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be issued imminently. Should Invest 97L strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be named Rafael, following the naming conventions of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. According to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross, computer models show a consensus that the system will likely reach tropical storm strength by the time it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico midweek. He noted that a significant amount of tropical moisture will likely accompany the potential storm, raising the risk of flooding on Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico from Monday onward, with some of this moisture possibly reaching South Florida by midweek. However, Norcross mentioned that uncertainty arises once the system enters the Gulf due to weakening steering currents. If Invest 97L remains weak, it may be drawn west towards the Mexican coast, while a stronger system could move north to some segment of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Yet, he cautions that adverse atmospheric conditions, including dry air in the Gulf and inappropriate upper-level wind patterns, could hinder its intensification. He points out that even if the potential Rafael strengthens in the southern Gulf, it seems improbable that it would develop into a major storm upon reaching the coastline. “Obviously, we’re going to have another week of watching the tropics, though the odds of a significant storm impacting the U.S. appear to be low,” Norcross affirmed, finalizing that any coastal interaction would likely occur around the upcoming weekend. Additionally, the NHC has been monitoring a second disturbance located near the northeastern Caribbean Sea, which currently possesses a minimal chance of developing in the immediate future. According to Norcross, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the northeastern Caribbean islands for the next few days, but it will likely be absorbed by the intensifying disturbance of Invest 97L.

Invest 97L is currently forming in the Caribbean Sea and presents an opportunity to transition into a tropical storm in the near future. As a weather disturbance, it is under the scrutiny of the National Hurricane Center, which has detailed forecasts that indicate its potential trajectory and impact. The system has been noted for its disorganized state, but predicted development suggests increasing capability as it moves through warmer waters. Understanding these developments is crucial for regional communities and environmental monitoring agencies as they prepare for potential impacts, including rainfall and flooding. Additionally, the phenomena of tropical storms and depressions often lead to significant weather changes, underlining the importance of accurate forecasting in managing disaster preparedness and response.

In conclusion, Invest 97L is showing a high probability of evolving into Tropical Storm Rafael as it navigates through the Caribbean. The system presents an 80% chance of development in the next two days, with potential impacts anticipated across the western Caribbean and parts of South Florida. However, the storm’s trajectory remains uncertain once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, with forecasting models suggesting varied outcomes based on its strength. Despite the current optimistic statistics regarding strengthening into a storm, there are factors that may inhibit significant intensification. Continued monitoring is essential as the situation unfolds, emphasizing the importance of staying informed during hurricane season.

Original Source: www.fox13news.com