Hurricane Threat Looms in Caribbean as Disturbance Approaches Gulf of Mexico
A disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to become a hurricane as it heads to the Gulf of Mexico, expected to impact Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rains are anticipated, leading to possible flooding. A tropical storm warning is issued for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands. Subtropical Storm Patty is also in motion towards post-tropical status.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami have indicated that a disturbance located in the south-central Caribbean Sea is likely to escalate to hurricane strength early in the forthcoming week as it progresses toward the Gulf of Mexico. Investigations conducted by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters on Sunday revealed the presence of a closed center within the disturbance; however, it had not yet developed into a tropical depression, as noted by NHC forecasters in a report at 3 p.m. on the same day. The environmental conditions surrounding this system appear favorable for further strengthening over the next few days. Notwithstanding, forecasters anticipate that wind shear, along with intrusions of dry air, may diminish the system’s intensity once it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week. The NHC’s most recent forecast trajectory indicates that the system is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical storm on Tuesday and subsequently reach Cuba as a hurricane soon thereafter. Following its passage through the Gulf, the system is likely to weaken into a tropical storm; however, it remains too early to ascertain its final destination. In terms of impact, the system is poised to generate heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential mudslides across certain areas of the western Caribbean in the coming days. As a precautionary measure, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning is now in effect for Jamaica. Residents and stakeholders in the Florida Keys are advised to remain vigilant and monitor the system closely. Should the disturbance lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, it would be designated as Rafael, marking it as the 17th named storm within the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which is set to conclude on November 30. In addition, a trough of low pressure over the southeastern Bahamas is anticipated to be absorbed by the potential tropical cyclone moving through the Caribbean Sea by late Monday. Regardless of whether it develops further, forecasters predict that this system will likely deliver heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Moreover, Subtropical Storm Patty was reported to be advancing eastward at 17 mph, with maximum sustained winds recorded at 45 mph, and winds of 40 mph noted on Sunday afternoon, as per the NHC’s updates. This system is projected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night.
The Caribbean Sea frequently experiences disturbances that can develop into tropical cyclones, especially during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November annually. The National Hurricane Center plays a critical role in monitoring these weather systems and providing forecasts to help mitigate impact on vulnerable regions. In recent weeks, the meteorological environment has proven conducive for cyclone developments, prompting excitement among both meteorologists and coastal communities.
In summary, a disturbance in the south-central Caribbean is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days, with significant rainfall and potential flooding impacting the western Caribbean. Residents and authorities in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida Keys should remain alert to developments, as the situation evolves. Additionally, Subtropical Storm Patty is also being monitored as it progresses toward post-tropical status. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season continues to reveal a dynamic and challenging weather potential.
Original Source: www.nola.com
