Potential Development of Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean
A weather system over the southern Caribbean Sea has an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Rafael. Predictions indicate possible flooding for Caribbean islands and South Florida as moisture moves north. However, the forecast becomes uncertain once in the Gulf of Mexico, with a low likelihood of significant impacts on the U.S. Also mentioned is the development of Subtropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic, expected to weaken without significant impact.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a forecast regarding a developing weather system over the southern Caribbean Sea. This system has an 80% probability of developing into a tropical depression and will be designated as Tropical Storm Rafael upon the attainment of sustained winds of at least 40 mph. The low-pressure area is anticipated to spawn a separate weather system on its eastern side, likely moving towards Jamaica at the beginning of next week. Current projections from various meteorological models suggest the system may reach tropical storm strength as it progresses toward the southern Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday or Thursday. There is a likelihood of heavy tropical moisture accompanying the storm, which may increase the risk of flooding across Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday, with possible impacts reaching South Florida by midweek. As the system approaches the Gulf, the forecast becomes less certain due to anticipated weakening of steering currents. Should the system remain weak, a westward drift toward the Mexican coast is more probable. Conversely, a stronger system may navigate northward towards parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, the presence of dry air and hostile upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico raise concerns about potential storm intensification, suggesting that significant impacts at the coast seem unlikely based on current data. If the system were to reach the coast, this could occur by next weekend. Additionally, further development is occurring near Puerto Rico due to a mix of an upper-level disturbance and a residual front, producing disturbed weather conditions. This pattern is expected to result in heavy rainfall across northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as it migrates westward, potentially merging with the developing Caribbean disturbance. Although the National Hurricane Center has indicated a slight chance of this system evolving into a tropical depression in the short term, it is unlikely to affect the broader forecast. In the North Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Patty has emerged from an extensive non-tropical low-pressure area. Patty is characterized as a subtropical storm due to its energy being a hybrid of oceanic heat and the residual cold air from its non-tropical origin. This system is predicted to track near the Azores Islands and will likely weaken as it advances towards Portugal or northwestern Spain. No significant impacts are anticipated from this system.
The National Hurricane Center monitors tropical storms and depressions, providing forecasts based on meteorological data and models. The formation of Tropical Storm Rafael from a broad low-pressure area in the Caribbean is an example of how weather systems develop in tropical regions. The agency assesses the potential strength and trajectory of such systems, which are crucial for preparedness in the vulnerable coastal areas of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, there is an ongoing formation of Subtropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic, marking a distinct weather phenomenon that combines both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.
In summary, the National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the development of a potential Tropical Storm Rafael emerging from the southern Caribbean, with predictions of heavy tropical moisture and possible flooding threats for western Caribbean islands and South Florida. While the storm’s path remains uncertain as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, current models suggest a low likelihood of significant impacts on the U.S. However, continuous observation is necessary, given the unpredictable nature of tropical weather systems. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Patty is expected to weaken as it moves toward Portugal, posing minimal threat to those areas.
Original Source: www.foxweather.com
