Monitoring Tropical Systems: Will One Reach Texas?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical systems, one with a 70% formation chance. Experts indicate a potentially active end to the hurricane season, including possible impacts on Texas, although clear impacts remain uncertain.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring three tropical systems, including one with a significant 70% chance of formation. As the hurricane season draws to a close, AccuWeather has indicated the potential for additional named storms, warning that tropical activity may persist beyond November. Historically, such occurrences in December are rare, with the last instance being Tropical Storm Olga in December 2007. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert, Alex DaSilva, expressed, “We have consistently predicted that the latter part of the hurricane season could become quite active, particularly in November. This outlook remains unchanged.” Presently, a tropical depression is being tracked in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, which may intensify into a tropical storm within the week. Concurrently, two other systems are also under NHC surveillance. One significant system has a high chance of forming over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, with the potential development into a tropical depression anticipated either late this weekend or early next week. While the formation chance is 70% over the next seven days, it is considerably lower at 30% within the next 48 hours. At this time, it remains uncertain whether this system will affect Texas. The NHC is also observing another system near Puerto Rico, generating considerable rain and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. Although there is only a 10% chance of this system developing within both 48 hours and seven days, heavy rainfall is likely, raising concerns about flooding and mudslides, irrespective of tropical cyclone formation. Additionally, a non-tropical low pressure northeast of the Azores is unlikely to develop significantly. Overall, widespread rainfall and potential flash flooding are expected throughout much of the Caribbean region this week. Previous forecasts had warned of an exceptionally active hurricane season, predicting 17 to 24 named storms, of which 8 to 13 might escalate into hurricanes. To date, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen 15 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, four of which were classified as major hurricanes, rated as Category 3 or higher.
The article discusses the current status of tropical systems being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, highlighting an imminent threat of development in the Caribbean region. It emphasizes the predictions made by experts regarding the potential for increased storm activity as the hurricane season ends, reminding readers of the history of storms forming late in the season and regarding expectations for Texas.
In summary, the National Hurricane Center is actively tracking three tropical systems, with one having a 70% likelihood of formation. Experts predict a busy closing month for the hurricane season, with the potential for continued activity into December. The implications for Texas remain uncertain, but residents are advised to prepare for possible severe weather and associated flooding due to extensive rainfall in the Caribbean.
Original Source: www.statesman.com
